How bond investors soured on France

When Michel Barnier, France’s new prime minister, submits his budget to parliament on October 10th he will be doing so against a painful market backdrop. A fortnight ago the yield on French ten-year government debt surpassed that of Spain, suggesting that investors see the euro zone’s second-largest economy as riskier than its southern neighbour’s (see chart 1). That is quite the turnaround. In January Spanish yields were around 0.4 percentage points higher than their French equivalents; at the worst of the euro-zone crisis, the gap was nearer five full percentage points. French borrowing costs are now well above the levels of Portugal and closer to those of Greece and Italy than they are to Germany’s.